Mt. Fuji’s new-found recognition, World Heritage site status by UNESCO, may have been just in the nick of time, as danger lurking underneath the surface could radically change what it means to Japan.
The reality is that it is an active volcano, which experts say will not only erupt again, but will probably do so quite soon. There is a consensus among many experts that it may erupt sometime in the next 3 years, with many saying sometime in 2014.
And what are the reasons for this prediction?
1) There have been thousands of earthquakes under and around Mt. Fuji over the last few years, particularly since the major Tohoku earthquake in 2011, which is a clear sign of activity under the volcano.
2) Experts say that the pressure of the magma under the mountain is building, and is currently measured to be about 1.6 megapascals. How much pressure is this? Experts say that this pressure figure likely exceeds the pressure under the mountain the last time it erupted in 1707.
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3) Preceding the 1707 eruption by about 4 years, on December 31, 1703 was a major 7.9-8.2 magnitude earthquake, relatively close to Tokyo, which was followed by a massive 8.4-8.7 earthquake on October 28, 1707 off of Wakayama prefecture several hundred km to the southwest. Only 49 days later, on December 16, 1707, Mt. Fuji erupted. It is commonly thought that a major earthquake in Mt. Fuji’s general area could setoff the required chain-reaction for a major eruption, and many say that the Tohoku earthquake of 2011 in the north of Japan could have already set this process in motion.
4) There have been reports of the water level of some of the lakes surrounding Mt. Fuji changing significantly and that Kawaguchi Lake, known for natural gas coming up from the lake bottom, is experiencing huge increases in the amount of gas being emitted.
5) Still another factor pointing toward a major eruption is that it is commonly thought that preceding a major event like a Mt. Fuji eruption are smaller events in the surrounding region. Mt. Fuji is the massive main volcano in a region with many surrounding lesser volcanos. Over the last several years, there has been an increase in events in the area, notably volcanic activity off the coast of nearby Izu peninsula (Izu-tobu-kazangun), the nearby island of Izu-Oshima, and most famously, the island of Miyakejima, in 2000-2002, which had to be evacuated, and is still smoking to this day.
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